Evidence published 25/09/2026 · Version and source files

Approved evidence release lens-2026-09-25-a1fc94c9307e

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THE ACTUARY LENS · GEO RISK

Beyond Postcodes

Location is a container of different risk mechanisms—not an explanation by itself. The public road evidence can test geographic differences and persistence; it cannot establish an insurer pricing lift.

01 · OBSERVED EVIDENCE

Different road outcomes

The approved 2016–2025 authority-level evidence aligns police-reported injury collisions with motor vehicle miles. Compare frequency, serious injury and traffic separately in the Lab.

02 · THE INSURANCE QUESTION

What drives the difference?

A location factor can mix exposure, road environment, behaviour, severity and correlated hazards. A more useful pricing question tests those components individually and asks whether differences persist in later years.

03 · EVIDENCE BOUNDARY

No claims lift claimed

These public measures are not postcode-level insurer claims or resident mileage. A pricing benefit would need held-out claims, credible exposure and governance on an insurer’s own portfolio.

04 · NEXT STEP

Inspect the evidence

Use the Lab for the interactive maps, annual series, source records and study protocol. Filters from an older map link are carried into the Lab.

Open Postcode Risk Lab →