The question
Do recorded road outcomes differ between areas, and do those differences repeat in later years?
POSTCODE RISK LAB
Do geographic differences persist?
Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.
Explore the geographic evidence
Through The Actuary Lens
Authority-level patterns support investigation, but cannot establish within-postcode differences or pricing lift without geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.
Published measures & limits
Injury collision frequency
Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.
Serious injury exposure
Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.
Fatality exposure
People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.
Severity conditional on collision
DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.
Traffic through the area
Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.
About the five Postcode Risk Indices
These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.
Sources & release
23 sources need attention. The source table is open below; each row explains whether a check failed or new evidence awaits review.
Inspect 24 relevant sources
| Source | Recorded source period | Checked in release | Validated in release | Current source check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Local authority motor vehicle mileage | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries | December 2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Rainfall — England | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Rainfall — Wales | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Rainfall — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Air frost — England | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Air frost — Wales | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Air frost — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — England | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Recorded vehicle offences by police force | Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries | December 2023 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Properties in river and sea flood hazard | June 2026 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Properties in surface-water flood hazard | September 2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| STATS19 annual releases | Latest available release | 21/09/2026 | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Road safety table index | Latest available release | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Police street-level crime | Monthly releases | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| River and sea flood hazard | Current hazard model | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Surface-water flood hazard | Current hazard model | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Resident travel and rural/urban classification | Annual series; 2024 classification break | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Anonymised MOT data | Annual releases | 22/09/2026 | 25/09/2026 | No source issue recorded |
Technical release ID
lens-2026-09-25-a1fc94c9307e