Injury collision frequency
Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.
POSTCODE RISK LAB
Do geographic differences persist?
Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.
Explore the geographic evidence
2016–2025 · Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025
THE ACTUARY LENSGEOGRAPHY · EVIDENCE · PERSISTENCE
Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk
Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.
Official sources · 2016–2025207 areas · 2,070 area-yearsPublic evidence, not a validated insurance tariff
Tracker publication · 25/09/2026
Differences over time · County Durham · Injury collision frequency · Map year 2025 · History 2016–2025 · Assessment 2022–2025
Release and terminology
lens-2026-09-25-a1fc94c9307e
KSI = killed or seriously injured. FSC = fatal or serious collisions. GB = Great Britain. UK = United Kingdom. DfT = Department for Transport. ONS = Office for National Statistics. PFA = police force area. NRD = National Receptor Dataset. These public outcomes are not insurance claim costs.
Historical window and display controls
The historical window is exploratory. Formal persistence remains fixed to 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.
County Durham: Recorded rate over time
collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles · 2016–2025 · gaps remain unconnected
County DurhamFixed-panel benchmark
Plotted data and chart description
Each series follows the labelled measure through calendar years. Missing or withheld values are not zero and are not connected. Dashed and solid lines distinguish adjacent series.
| Year | County Durham | Fixed-panel benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31.7 | 42.86 |
| 2017 | 31.98 | 40.5 |
| 2018 | 28.2 | 38.01 |
| 2019 | 24.7 | 36.01 |
| 2020 | 22.95 | 35.58 |
| 2021 | 20.56 | 35.37 |
| 2022 | 18.77 | 34.13 |
| 2023 | 16.62 | 32.71 |
| 2024 | 16.06 | 30.86 |
| 2025 | 15.16 | 30.38 |
Recorded area rates and a fixed-panel benchmark share the same unit. Gaps are missing or withheld, not zero.
What this shows: County Durham: 15.16 collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles in 2025.
What it does not show: individual postcode risk, claim cost, causal effects or pricing improvement. Injury severity is not monetary claim severity.
How this measure is calculated
Injury collisions ÷ motor vehicle miles × 100,000,000. Missing or flagged evidence is withheld.
County Durham: numerator 438; denominator 2,888,300,000.
Sources for this selection
Immutable release: lens-2026-09-25-a1fc94c9307e. Values in the interface are rounded; downloads retain calculation precision.
RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
Annual evidence: direction and eligibility
Formal classification uses only 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. The historical window does not alter this assessment. “Above” and “below” describe direction, not statistical significance. A count such as 2/4 is a count of eligible years, not a probability.
2016Below
2017Below
2018Below
2019Below
2020Below
2021Below
2022 · assessmentBelow
2023 · assessmentBelow
2024 · assessmentBelow
2025 · assessmentBelow
| Year | Recorded measure | Benchmark | Difference (%) | Assessment / reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31.7 | 42.86 | -26.05 | Historical · Below |
| 2017 | 31.98 | 40.5 | -21.03 | Historical · Below |
| 2018 | 28.2 | 38.01 | -25.82 | Historical · Below |
| 2019 | 24.7 | 36.01 | -31.4 | Historical · Below |
| 2020 | 22.95 | 35.58 | -35.49 | Historical · Below |
| 2021 | 20.56 | 35.37 | -41.88 | Historical · Below |
| 2022 | 18.77 | 34.13 | -45.01 | Formal · Below |
| 2023 | 16.62 | 32.71 | -49.19 | Formal · Below |
| 2024 | 16.06 | 30.86 | -47.95 | Formal · Below |
| 2025 | 15.16 | 30.38 | -50.09 | Formal · Below |
A repeated pattern is stronger evidence than a single map.
Rank areas on pooled 2016–2019 experience. Keep membership fixed. Examine 2022–2025 separately, with 2020–2021 shown as a stress period. This is a retrospective test using the current revised source vintage.
2016–2019Discovery · fix the groups
2020–2021Stress · pandemic disruption
2022–2025Later years · test persistence
Direction versus fixed-panel benchmark · 2022–2025
Loading verified boundaries…
Select an area to explore its evidence
· direction categories, not magnitude
Always belowAlways aboveMixed╱ Withheld· Unavailable＋ Outside coverage
Formal assessment classification; colour shows direction category. © ONS · Generalised boundaries. Zoom changes orientation, not geographic resolution.2016–2019Discovery: freeze group membership2020–2021Pandemic stress period2022–2025Later years: examine persistence
Does the earlier ordering survive?
The highest discovery group exceeds the lowest in 4 of 4 eligible later years. This compares the extreme groups; it does not establish that all five retain their order.
190 authorities have complete, unflagged mileage histories. These are the same frozen groups and calculations used in the Postcode Risk Lab. Rates pool numerators and denominators; areas are not averaged equally.
Q1 · lower discovery riskQ2Q3Q4Q5 · higher discovery risk
Group values, exposure and counts
| Group | Year | Rate | Authorities | Injury collisions | Motor miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 2016 | 21.55 | 38 | 10,969 | 50,899,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2017 | 18.65 | 38 | 9,673 | 51,865,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2018 | 17.41 | 38 | 9,045 | 51,961,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2019 | 16.15 | 38 | 8,494 | 52,590,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2020 | 15.86 | 38 | 6,361 | 40,108,800,000 |
| Q1 | 2021 | 14.98 | 38 | 6,851 | 45,734,500,000 |
| Q1 | 2022 | 14.22 | 38 | 7,174 | 50,457,500,000 |
| Q1 | 2023 | 14.39 | 38 | 7,448 | 51,765,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2024 | 13.86 | 38 | 7,304 | 52,701,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2025 | 13.26 | 38 | 7,107 | 53,616,700,000 |
| Q2 | 2016 | 28.97 | 38 | 23,526 | 81,212,500,000 |
| Q2 | 2017 | 26.58 | 38 | 21,906 | 82,418,200,000 |
| Q2 | 2018 | 24.44 | 38 | 20,260 | 82,881,700,000 |
| Q2 | 2019 | 22.95 | 38 | 19,283 | 84,009,900,000 |
| Q2 | 2020 | 22.93 | 38 | 15,021 | 65,513,900,000 |
| Q2 | 2021 | 22.65 | 38 | 16,705 | 73,753,400,000 |
| Q2 | 2022 | 21.62 | 38 | 17,434 | 80,647,300,000 |
| Q2 | 2023 | 20.42 | 38 | 16,856 | 82,541,000,000 |
| Q2 | 2024 | 19.67 | 38 | 16,504 | 83,905,200,000 |
| Q2 | 2025 | 19.92 | 38 | 17,037 | 85,530,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2016 | 37.82 | 38 | 29,596 | 78,246,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2017 | 34.42 | 38 | 27,353 | 79,476,000,000 |
| Q3 | 2018 | 32.21 | 38 | 25,823 | 80,164,100,000 |
| Q3 | 2019 | 29.88 | 38 | 24,295 | 81,320,300,000 |
| Q3 | 2020 | 28.46 | 38 | 18,309 | 64,343,700,000 |
| Q3 | 2021 | 28.62 | 38 | 20,494 | 71,613,600,000 |
| Q3 | 2022 | 28.33 | 38 | 22,021 | 77,731,400,000 |
| Q3 | 2023 | 27.03 | 38 | 21,464 | 79,408,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2024 | 26.22 | 38 | 21,080 | 80,411,200,000 |
| Q3 | 2025 | 25.4 | 38 | 20,918 | 82,340,100,000 |
| Q4 | 2016 | 55.23 | 38 | 31,991 | 57,922,600,000 |
| Q4 | 2017 | 51.98 | 38 | 30,428 | 58,543,500,000 |
| Q4 | 2018 | 48.97 | 38 | 28,785 | 58,786,000,000 |
| Q4 | 2019 | 46.88 | 38 | 27,856 | 59,416,500,000 |
| Q4 | 2020 | 44.61 | 38 | 21,191 | 47,506,000,000 |
| Q4 | 2021 | 45.46 | 38 | 23,825 | 52,403,900,000 |
| Q4 | 2022 | 44.63 | 38 | 25,399 | 56,906,300,000 |
| Q4 | 2023 | 42.69 | 38 | 24,807 | 58,110,200,000 |
| Q4 | 2024 | 40.13 | 38 | 23,719 | 59,100,600,000 |
| Q4 | 2025 | 39.57 | 38 | 23,775 | 60,076,100,000 |
| Q5 | 2016 | 130.12 | 38 | 28,185 | 21,660,300,000 |
| Q5 | 2017 | 136.94 | 38 | 29,699 | 21,688,100,000 |
| Q5 | 2018 | 131.12 | 38 | 28,396 | 21,656,800,000 |
| Q5 | 2019 | 127.04 | 38 | 27,835 | 21,909,900,000 |
| Q5 | 2020 | 127.78 | 38 | 22,869 | 17,896,700,000 |
| Q5 | 2021 | 127.75 | 38 | 25,230 | 19,748,800,000 |
| Q5 | 2022 | 124.57 | 38 | 25,730 | 20,655,200,000 |
| Q5 | 2023 | 120.82 | 38 | 25,149 | 20,815,700,000 |
| Q5 | 2024 | 109.66 | 38 | 23,120 | 21,084,000,000 |
| Q5 | 2025 | 108.98 | 38 | 23,170 | 21,260,500,000 |
Earlier and later area outcomes
Rank correlation: 0.954 across 190 eligible areas. The dashed line marks equal rates. A shift in the national level can move all points without changing their order.
Paired area data
| Authority | Earlier rate | Later rate | Earlier count | Later count | Later miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County Durham | 29.06 | 16.62 | 3,084 | 1,861 | 11,194,500,000 |
| Darlington | 38.3 | 22.44 | 779 | 477 | 2,126,100,000 |
| Gateshead | 35.39 | 24.55 | 1,510 | 1,087 | 4,427,000,000 |
| Hartlepool | 25.99 | 22.89 | 407 | 380 | 1,659,900,000 |
| Middlesbrough | 29.78 | 20.26 | 872 | 693 | 3,419,900,000 |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | 52.57 | 40.91 | 2,269 | 1,801 | 4,402,600,000 |
| North Tyneside | 36.41 | 26.49 | 1,164 | 892 | 3,367,100,000 |
| Northumberland | 29.32 | 19.84 | 2,275 | 1,640 | 8,266,200,000 |
| Redcar and Cleveland | 23.74 | 20.18 | 542 | 484 | 2,397,900,000 |
| South Tyneside | 45.26 | 30.84 | 851 | 628 | 2,036,200,000 |
| Stockton-on-Tees | 25.23 | 19.15 | 905 | 712 | 3,718,600,000 |
| Sunderland | 40.58 | 30.08 | 1,728 | 1,313 | 4,365,000,000 |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 80.22 | 65.51 | 1,435 | 1,146 | 1,749,400,000 |
| Blackpool | 109.28 | 92.64 | 1,459 | 1,218 | 1,314,700,000 |
| Bolton | 32.53 | 23.24 | 1,652 | 1,208 | 5,198,100,000 |
| Bury | 22.24 | 16.8 | 906 | 683 | 4,065,100,000 |
| Cheshire East | 25.54 | 19.74 | 2,978 | 2,357 | 11,940,900,000 |
| Cheshire West and Chester | 26.99 | 20.59 | 2,720 | 2,091 | 10,153,000,000 |
| Halton | 33.63 | 22.01 | 885 | 568 | 2,581,200,000 |
| Knowsley | 22.22 | 19.77 | 855 | 809 | 4,091,900,000 |
| Lancashire | 36.56 | 29.51 | 10,456 | 8,614 | 29,194,200,000 |
| Liverpool | 69.07 | 66.78 | 3,802 | 3,605 | 5,398,000,000 |
| Manchester | 54.8 | 40.78 | 3,663 | 2,769 | 6,790,100,000 |
| Oldham | 43.55 | 28.45 | 1,218 | 821 | 2,886,200,000 |
| Rochdale | 25.22 | 17.92 | 1,074 | 799 | 4,458,300,000 |
| Salford | 25.52 | 19.03 | 1,469 | 1,106 | 5,812,900,000 |
| Sefton | 60.09 | 46.07 | 1,751 | 1,350 | 2,930,200,000 |
| St. Helens | 28.46 | 27.7 | 983 | 942 | 3,400,400,000 |
| Stockport | 22.97 | 18.05 | 1,093 | 891 | 4,935,200,000 |
| Tameside | 35.15 | 27.82 | 1,049 | 849 | 3,051,600,000 |
| Trafford | 28.37 | 19.44 | 1,054 | 758 | 3,898,800,000 |
| Warrington | 25.56 | 17.63 | 1,749 | 1,236 | 7,009,500,000 |
| Wigan | 24.25 | 19.17 | 1,183 | 954 | 4,976,300,000 |
| Wirral | 41.31 | 34.81 | 1,778 | 1,522 | 4,372,000,000 |
| Bradford | 62.92 | 68.95 | 3,971 | 4,104 | 5,952,400,000 |
| Calderdale | 33.79 | 39.02 | 1,329 | 1,490 | 3,818,400,000 |
| Doncaster | 31.73 | 24.32 | 2,711 | 2,101 | 8,637,900,000 |
| East Riding of Yorkshire | 30.84 | 25.39 | 2,846 | 2,366 | 9,317,500,000 |
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | 103.28 | 88.09 | 3,192 | 2,630 | 2,985,700,000 |
| Kirklees | 39.39 | 39.29 | 2,770 | 2,692 | 6,850,900,000 |
| Leeds | 38.87 | 35.5 | 6,638 | 5,907 | 16,637,900,000 |
| North East Lincolnshire | 65.79 | 55.35 | 1,660 | 1,343 | 2,426,500,000 |
| North Lincolnshire | 35.8 | 30 | 1,634 | 1,359 | 4,529,600,000 |
| North Yorkshire | 23.76 | 19.36 | 5,238 | 4,198 | 21,678,700,000 |
| Rotherham | 31.59 | 26.91 | 1,968 | 1,693 | 6,290,500,000 |
| Wakefield | 31.03 | 31.98 | 2,379 | 2,405 | 7,521,200,000 |
| York | 48.96 | 37.17 | 1,638 | 1,227 | 3,301,100,000 |
| Derby | 43.06 | 39.65 | 1,927 | 1,909 | 4,814,300,000 |
| Derbyshire | 23.53 | 24.07 | 4,996 | 5,239 | 21,769,100,000 |
| Leicester | 73.58 | 44.78 | 2,765 | 1,819 | 4,062,500,000 |
| Leicestershire | 18.19 | 13.38 | 3,704 | 2,796 | 20,894,600,000 |
| Lincolnshire | 45.44 | 38.97 | 7,669 | 6,764 | 17,355,000,000 |
| Nottingham | 85.84 | 69.55 | 3,494 | 2,945 | 4,234,200,000 |
| Nottinghamshire | 32.69 | 26.65 | 6,370 | 5,169 | 19,395,600,000 |
| Rutland | 13.02 | 7.5 | 231 | 130 | 1,733,700,000 |
| Birmingham | 72.59 | 62.9 | 10,705 | 9,181 | 14,596,900,000 |
| Coventry | 51.05 | 32.66 | 2,488 | 1,579 | 4,834,100,000 |
| Dudley | 41.2 | 38.36 | 1,761 | 1,620 | 4,222,600,000 |
| Herefordshire, County of | 28.72 | 24.58 | 1,412 | 1,211 | 4,927,100,000 |
| Sandwell | 46.17 | 44.43 | 2,452 | 2,377 | 5,350,100,000 |
| Shropshire | 24.96 | 17.31 | 2,109 | 1,491 | 8,615,100,000 |
| Solihull | 17.91 | 18.09 | 1,105 | 1,037 | 5,733,100,000 |
| Telford and Wrekin | 23.22 | 16.32 | 860 | 614 | 3,762,500,000 |
| Walsall | 52.17 | 38.6 | 2,021 | 1,556 | 4,031,400,000 |
| Warwickshire | 21.05 | 16.43 | 5,142 | 4,034 | 24,553,300,000 |
| Wolverhampton | 66.27 | 57.54 | 1,956 | 1,637 | 2,845,000,000 |
| Worcestershire | 21.07 | 15.22 | 3,708 | 2,752 | 18,082,600,000 |
| Bedford | 45.26 | 35.62 | 1,526 | 1,242 | 3,486,600,000 |
| Cambridgeshire | 28.42 | 20.8 | 5,637 | 4,296 | 20,658,400,000 |
| Central Bedfordshire | 30.8 | 24.39 | 2,589 | 2,092 | 8,575,700,000 |
| Essex | 27.81 | 24.07 | 10,565 | 9,333 | 38,778,400,000 |
| Hertfordshire | 29.64 | 23.02 | 8,898 | 6,776 | 29,432,800,000 |
| Luton | 96.08 | 76.2 | 1,959 | 1,543 | 2,024,900,000 |
| Norfolk | 33.19 | 28.51 | 7,059 | 6,238 | 21,877,700,000 |
| Peterborough | 42.53 | 30.22 | 2,047 | 1,481 | 4,900,300,000 |
| Southend-on-Sea | 70.72 | 68.53 | 1,148 | 1,081 | 1,577,400,000 |
| Suffolk | 36.22 | 27.01 | 5,985 | 4,476 | 16,573,700,000 |
| Thurrock | 29.34 | 22.51 | 1,292 | 1,015 | 4,509,700,000 |
| Barking and Dagenham | 139.76 | 116.33 | 2,307 | 1,879 | 1,615,300,000 |
| Barnet | 84.92 | 78.17 | 3,780 | 3,276 | 4,190,800,000 |
| Bexley | 73.68 | 63.8 | 1,883 | 1,587 | 2,487,500,000 |
| Brent | 150.54 | 139.07 | 3,768 | 3,371 | 2,423,900,000 |
| Bromley | 84.81 | 68.51 | 3,055 | 2,424 | 3,538,300,000 |
| Camden | 282.56 | 251.95 | 3,482 | 2,779 | 1,103,000,000 |
| City of London | 317.67 | 245.42 | 1,210 | 723 | 294,600,000 |
| Croydon | 110.62 | 116.68 | 3,716 | 3,902 | 3,344,100,000 |
| Ealing | 118.06 | 102.25 | 3,995 | 3,256 | 3,184,300,000 |
| Enfield | 80.07 | 83.64 | 3,522 | 3,721 | 4,448,900,000 |
| Greenwich | 94.3 | 80.95 | 2,809 | 2,412 | 2,979,500,000 |
| Hackney | 297.98 | 276.48 | 3,458 | 3,007 | 1,087,600,000 |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | 204.55 | 184 | 2,673 | 2,217 | 1,204,900,000 |
| Haringey | 264.59 | 257.7 | 3,619 | 3,306 | 1,282,900,000 |
| Harrow | 116.87 | 100.86 | 1,902 | 1,612 | 1,598,200,000 |
| Havering | 53.48 | 46.48 | 2,379 | 2,090 | 4,496,900,000 |
| Hillingdon | 48.53 | 45.88 | 2,969 | 2,686 | 5,854,600,000 |
| Hounslow | 76.89 | 67.64 | 3,266 | 2,765 | 4,088,100,000 |
| Islington | 319.41 | 256.69 | 3,143 | 2,313 | 901,100,000 |
| Kensington and Chelsea | 224.94 | 193.85 | 2,879 | 2,377 | 1,226,200,000 |
| Kingston upon Thames | 53.31 | 47.6 | 1,326 | 1,140 | 2,395,200,000 |
| Lambeth | 264.21 | 218.96 | 5,031 | 3,972 | 1,814,000,000 |
| Lewisham | 177.47 | 166.78 | 3,421 | 2,976 | 1,784,400,000 |
| Merton | 121.54 | 104.2 | 2,006 | 1,674 | 1,606,600,000 |
| Newham | 149.64 | 141.56 | 3,508 | 3,232 | 2,283,200,000 |
| Redbridge | 98.09 | 88.14 | 2,938 | 2,543 | 2,885,200,000 |
| Richmond upon Thames | 77.73 | 70.7 | 1,683 | 1,436 | 2,031,000,000 |
| Southwark | 243.1 | 226.51 | 4,369 | 3,899 | 1,721,300,000 |
| Sutton | 89.46 | 76.74 | 1,618 | 1,410 | 1,837,400,000 |
| Tower Hamlets | 206.14 | 189.57 | 4,498 | 3,895 | 2,054,700,000 |
| Waltham Forest | 133.53 | 104.47 | 2,713 | 2,069 | 1,980,400,000 |
| Wandsworth | 203.74 | 197.58 | 3,964 | 3,599 | 1,821,500,000 |
| Westminster | 297.63 | 264.59 | 6,305 | 4,769 | 1,802,400,000 |
| Bracknell Forest | 31.06 | 25.94 | 558 | 455 | 1,754,000,000 |
| Brighton and Hove | 88.08 | 77.52 | 2,829 | 2,349 | 3,030,100,000 |
| East Sussex | 48.8 | 42.76 | 5,287 | 4,492 | 10,505,300,000 |
| Hampshire | 27.29 | 23.92 | 10,652 | 9,114 | 38,095,000,000 |
| Isle of Wight | 73.3 | 60.7 | 1,211 | 968 | 1,594,700,000 |
| Kent | 42.25 | 33.49 | 16,022 | 12,684 | 37,873,100,000 |
| Medway | 69.07 | 56.12 | 2,409 | 1,956 | 3,485,300,000 |
| Milton Keynes | 33.85 | 20.3 | 2,121 | 1,221 | 6,014,300,000 |
| Oxfordshire | 25.71 | 18.69 | 5,033 | 3,521 | 18,839,100,000 |
| Portsmouth | 69.49 | 60.54 | 2,106 | 1,819 | 3,004,400,000 |
| Reading | 75.86 | 75.64 | 1,131 | 1,072 | 1,417,200,000 |
| Slough | 64.85 | 48.24 | 1,326 | 908 | 1,882,300,000 |
| Southampton | 82.27 | 76.5 | 2,095 | 1,865 | 2,437,900,000 |
| Surrey | 38.45 | 31.06 | 13,326 | 10,475 | 33,721,600,000 |
| West Berkshire | 12.21 | 11.3 | 952 | 821 | 7,268,500,000 |
| West Sussex | 43.61 | 40.33 | 7,787 | 6,930 | 17,184,400,000 |
| Windsor and Maidenhead | 22.86 | 16.26 | 1,049 | 709 | 4,359,600,000 |
| Wokingham | 20.06 | 18 | 829 | 707 | 3,928,200,000 |
| Cornwall | 33.78 | 27.5 | 4,659 | 3,874 | 14,088,600,000 |
| Devon | 27.23 | 21.12 | 6,300 | 5,024 | 23,783,500,000 |
| Gloucestershire | 18.59 | 22.36 | 3,268 | 3,893 | 17,411,500,000 |
| Plymouth | 54.21 | 40.98 | 2,031 | 1,608 | 3,923,500,000 |
| Swindon | 30.95 | 32.74 | 1,665 | 1,612 | 4,923,100,000 |
| Torbay | 58.28 | 41.21 | 1,010 | 696 | 1,688,800,000 |
| Wiltshire | 24.96 | 25.53 | 3,867 | 3,811 | 14,926,800,000 |
| Aberdeen City | 16.52 | 7.61 | 571 | 290 | 3,808,300,000 |
| Aberdeenshire | 12.95 | 7.07 | 1,016 | 562 | 7,953,200,000 |
| Angus | 16.37 | 13.34 | 464 | 374 | 2,803,400,000 |
| Argyll and Bute | 26.87 | 15.08 | 652 | 362 | 2,399,900,000 |
| City of Edinburgh | 46.63 | 25.08 | 3,533 | 1,907 | 7,603,700,000 |
| Clackmannanshire | 22.36 | 10.82 | 186 | 92 | 850,500,000 |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 17.4 | 14.11 | 959 | 791 | 5,607,700,000 |
| Dundee City | 22.97 | 25.3 | 477 | 539 | 2,130,300,000 |
| East Ayrshire | 20.53 | 12 | 576 | 347 | 2,891,700,000 |
| East Dunbartonshire | 22.13 | 10.58 | 307 | 149 | 1,407,700,000 |
| East Lothian | 22.2 | 12.21 | 543 | 316 | 2,589,000,000 |
| East Renfrewshire | 16.66 | 12.24 | 327 | 244 | 1,994,100,000 |
| Falkirk | 18.39 | 9.32 | 747 | 371 | 3,981,000,000 |
| Fife | 18.29 | 13.67 | 1,395 | 1,037 | 7,586,300,000 |
| Glasgow City | 46.04 | 26.87 | 4,100 | 2,395 | 8,913,600,000 |
| Highland | 19.55 | 12.75 | 1,411 | 983 | 7,712,700,000 |
| Inverclyde | 28.7 | 11.7 | 378 | 153 | 1,307,400,000 |
| Midlothian | 30.59 | 18 | 536 | 312 | 1,733,300,000 |
| Moray | 11.95 | 8.38 | 236 | 170 | 2,029,800,000 |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | 14.44 | 9.34 | 86 | 52 | 556,800,000 |
| North Ayrshire | 31.47 | 17.96 | 624 | 360 | 2,004,100,000 |
| North Lanarkshire | 20.5 | 10.34 | 1,655 | 875 | 8,459,800,000 |
| Orkney Islands | 19.78 | 11.23 | 74 | 42 | 373,900,000 |
| Perth and Kinross | 10.74 | 9.49 | 689 | 604 | 6,364,700,000 |
| Renfrewshire | 23.11 | 12.15 | 921 | 494 | 4,066,100,000 |
| Scottish Borders | 21.95 | 11.46 | 707 | 362 | 3,158,800,000 |
| Shetland Islands | 13.31 | 7.7 | 77 | 44 | 571,500,000 |
| South Ayrshire | 23.58 | 10.94 | 609 | 288 | 2,631,600,000 |
| South Lanarkshire | 22.77 | 13.43 | 1,573 | 952 | 7,090,600,000 |
| Stirling | 16.99 | 11.03 | 564 | 354 | 3,210,500,000 |
| West Dunbartonshire | 23.91 | 11.44 | 397 | 193 | 1,687,200,000 |
| West Lothian | 24.25 | 12.95 | 1,135 | 614 | 4,741,100,000 |
| Blaenau Gwent | 24.6 | 21.7 | 263 | 226 | 1,041,600,000 |
| Bridgend | 20.99 | 9.27 | 740 | 323 | 3,484,700,000 |
| Caerphilly | 23.8 | 20.45 | 715 | 600 | 2,933,400,000 |
| Cardiff | 23.43 | 13.68 | 1,810 | 1,080 | 7,895,700,000 |
| Carmarthenshire | 29.43 | 25.69 | 1,540 | 1,310 | 5,099,600,000 |
| Ceredigion | 34.54 | 32.72 | 696 | 615 | 1,879,300,000 |
| Conwy | 22.69 | 13.42 | 725 | 434 | 3,233,500,000 |
| Denbighshire | 28.63 | 19.89 | 676 | 448 | 2,252,400,000 |
| Flintshire | 17.12 | 13.32 | 762 | 581 | 4,362,900,000 |
| Gwynedd | 21.34 | 14.51 | 746 | 502 | 3,458,800,000 |
| Isle of Anglesey | 18.1 | 11.3 | 301 | 187 | 1,654,200,000 |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 33.59 | 15.72 | 351 | 174 | 1,106,900,000 |
| Monmouthshire | 11.52 | 11.02 | 431 | 415 | 3,767,100,000 |
| Neath Port Talbot | 20.75 | 8.89 | 732 | 309 | 3,476,800,000 |
| Newport | 16.97 | 13.34 | 845 | 658 | 4,932,300,000 |
| Pembrokeshire | 35.3 | 31.12 | 1,030 | 885 | 2,843,800,000 |
| Powys | 34.37 | 32.31 | 1,445 | 1,304 | 4,035,300,000 |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 22.81 | 12.24 | 1,245 | 672 | 5,490,100,000 |
| Swansea | 28.98 | 12.11 | 1,302 | 546 | 4,508,700,000 |
| Torfaen | 20.33 | 19.48 | 334 | 337 | 1,730,100,000 |
| Vale of Glamorgan | 22.75 | 14.39 | 625 | 389 | 2,703,000,000 |
| Wrexham | 25.27 | 17.78 | 689 | 480 | 2,699,600,000 |
Movement between risk groups
Rows are the frozen discovery groups. Columns rank the same eligible areas in the later period. Darker cells indicate a greater share; each non-empty row sums to 100% before rounding.
| Earlier ↓ / later → | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 73.7%28 areas | 23.7%9 areas | 2.6%1 areas | 0%0 areas | 0%0 areas |
| Q2 | 21.1%8 areas | 57.9%22 areas | 21.1%8 areas | 0%0 areas | 0%0 areas |
| Q3 | 5.3%2 areas | 18.4%7 areas | 60.5%23 areas | 15.8%6 areas | 0%0 areas |
| Q4 | 0%0 areas | 0%0 areas | 15.8%6 areas | 78.9%30 areas | 5.3%2 areas |
| Q5 | 0%0 areas | 0%0 areas | 0%0 areas | 5.3%2 areas | 94.7%36 areas |
How long do rankings persist?
Each horizon repeats the comparison across eligible pairs of individual years. Correlations are descriptive; the overlapping tests are not independent evidence.
| Years ahead | Year pairs | Median correlation | Range | Mean excluding pandemic endpoints |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 0.981 | 0.959–0.989 | 0.979 |
| 2 | 8 | 0.975 | 0.945–0.977 | 0.968 |
| 3 | 7 | 0.955 | 0.939–0.976 | 0.957 |
| 5 | 5 | 0.95 | 0.911–0.965 | 0.946 |
Inspect every year pair, including stress years
| Horizon | Earlier year | Later year | Areas | Rank correlation | Pandemic endpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 2017 | 187 | 0.959 | No |
| 1 | 2017 | 2018 | 187 | 0.981 | No |
| 1 | 2018 | 2019 | 188 | 0.977 | No |
| 1 | 2019 | 2020 | 187 | 0.967 | Yes |
| 1 | 2020 | 2021 | 186 | 0.979 | Yes |
| 1 | 2021 | 2022 | 186 | 0.986 | Yes |
| 1 | 2022 | 2023 | 187 | 0.985 | No |
| 1 | 2023 | 2024 | 187 | 0.982 | No |
| 1 | 2024 | 2025 | 187 | 0.989 | No |
| 2 | 2016 | 2018 | 188 | 0.945 | No |
| 2 | 2017 | 2019 | 187 | 0.974 | No |
| 2 | 2018 | 2020 | 187 | 0.954 | Yes |
| 2 | 2019 | 2021 | 187 | 0.963 | Yes |
| 2 | 2020 | 2022 | 187 | 0.977 | Yes |
| 2 | 2021 | 2023 | 186 | 0.976 | Yes |
| 2 | 2022 | 2024 | 187 | 0.977 | No |
| 2 | 2023 | 2025 | 187 | 0.976 | No |
| 3 | 2016 | 2019 | 190 | 0.939 | No |
| 3 | 2017 | 2020 | 187 | 0.946 | Yes |
| 3 | 2018 | 2021 | 187 | 0.952 | Yes |
| 3 | 2019 | 2022 | 187 | 0.955 | No |
| 3 | 2020 | 2023 | 187 | 0.974 | Yes |
| 3 | 2021 | 2024 | 186 | 0.971 | Yes |
| 3 | 2022 | 2025 | 187 | 0.976 | No |
| 5 | 2016 | 2021 | 187 | 0.911 | Yes |
| 5 | 2017 | 2022 | 187 | 0.932 | No |
| 5 | 2018 | 2023 | 187 | 0.95 | No |
| 5 | 2019 | 2024 | 187 | 0.957 | No |
| 5 | 2020 | 2025 | 187 | 0.965 | Yes |
This is a retrospective persistence test. Complete-area selection, stable reporting differences and road mix can all affect the result. It is not a causal effect or an insurer pricing validation.
Exceptions stay in the evidence
Mixed directions and incomplete series remain visible. No area is removed because its outcome contradicts the argument.
All areas and classifications
| Area | Result | Above / eligible |
|---|---|---|
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Mixed across years | 1 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 3 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 3 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 0 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 0 | |
| Mixed across years | 2 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Mixed across years | 2 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 2 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 2 / 2 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Mixed across years | 1 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 0 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Mixed across years | 2 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 2 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 2 / 2 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 0 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 2 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 2 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 2 | |
| Mixed across years | 3 / 4 | |
| Consistently above | 4 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 0 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 0 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Incomplete evidence | 0 / 0 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Mixed across years | 2 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Mixed across years | 1 / 4 | |
| Mixed across years | 3 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 | |
| Consistently below | 0 / 4 |
Fixed-panel benchmark: membership, weighting and limits
190 of 207 Great Britain county / unitary authorities have an unflagged observation and non-missing motor mileage in every released year (2016–2025). The same panel is used each year. It is not the complete national total or a match on risk characteristics.
Rate = sum of relevant events ÷ sum of motor vehicle miles × 100 million. Severity share uses summed serious/fatal collisions ÷ summed injury collisions × 100. Traffic sums motor mileage, expressed in billions. These are ratios of sums, not an average of area rates.
The selected authority is included in the benchmark. Self-inclusion creates dependence. Relative differences have no confidence interval here. Completeness selection can bias the benchmark; it does not control confounding.
| Authority | Panel eligibility |
|---|---|
| County Durham | Included for every year |
| Darlington | Included for every year |
| Gateshead | Included for every year |
| Hartlepool | Included for every year |
| Middlesbrough | Included for every year |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | Included for every year |
| North Tyneside | Included for every year |
| Northumberland | Included for every year |
| Redcar and Cleveland | Included for every year |
| South Tyneside | Included for every year |
| Stockton-on-Tees | Included for every year |
| Sunderland | Included for every year |
| Blackburn with Darwen | Included for every year |
| Blackpool | Included for every year |
| Bolton | Included for every year |
| Bury | Included for every year |
| Cheshire East | Included for every year |
| Cheshire West and Chester | Included for every year |
| Cumberland | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Halton | Included for every year |
| Knowsley | Included for every year |
| Lancashire | Included for every year |
| Liverpool | Included for every year |
| Manchester | Included for every year |
| Oldham | Included for every year |
| Rochdale | Included for every year |
| Salford | Included for every year |
| Sefton | Included for every year |
| St. Helens | Included for every year |
| Stockport | Included for every year |
| Tameside | Included for every year |
| Trafford | Included for every year |
| Warrington | Included for every year |
| Westmorland and Furness | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Wigan | Included for every year |
| Wirral | Included for every year |
| Barnsley | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2023: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2024: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2025: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Bradford | Included for every year |
| Calderdale | Included for every year |
| Doncaster | Included for every year |
| East Riding of Yorkshire | Included for every year |
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | Included for every year |
| Kirklees | Included for every year |
| Leeds | Included for every year |
| North East Lincolnshire | Included for every year |
| North Lincolnshire | Included for every year |
| North Yorkshire | Included for every year |
| Rotherham | Included for every year |
| Sheffield | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2023: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2024: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2025: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Wakefield | Included for every year |
| York | Included for every year |
| Derby | Included for every year |
| Derbyshire | Included for every year |
| Leicester | Included for every year |
| Leicestershire | Included for every year |
| Lincolnshire | Included for every year |
| North Northamptonshire | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Nottingham | Included for every year |
| Nottinghamshire | Included for every year |
| Rutland | Included for every year |
| West Northamptonshire | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Birmingham | Included for every year |
| Coventry | Included for every year |
| Dudley | Included for every year |
| Herefordshire, County of | Included for every year |
| Sandwell | Included for every year |
| Shropshire | Included for every year |
| Solihull | Included for every year |
| Staffordshire | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Stoke-on-Trent | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Telford and Wrekin | Included for every year |
| Walsall | Included for every year |
| Warwickshire | Included for every year |
| Wolverhampton | Included for every year |
| Worcestershire | Included for every year |
| Bedford | Included for every year |
| Cambridgeshire | Included for every year |
| Central Bedfordshire | Included for every year |
| Essex | Included for every year |
| Hertfordshire | Included for every year |
| Luton | Included for every year |
| Norfolk | Included for every year |
| Peterborough | Included for every year |
| Southend-on-Sea | Included for every year |
| Suffolk | Included for every year |
| Thurrock | Included for every year |
| Barking and Dagenham | Included for every year |
| Barnet | Included for every year |
| Bexley | Included for every year |
| Brent | Included for every year |
| Bromley | Included for every year |
| Camden | Included for every year |
| City of London | Included for every year |
| Croydon | Included for every year |
| Ealing | Included for every year |
| Enfield | Included for every year |
| Greenwich | Included for every year |
| Hackney | Included for every year |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | Included for every year |
| Haringey | Included for every year |
| Harrow | Included for every year |
| Havering | Included for every year |
| Hillingdon | Included for every year |
| Hounslow | Included for every year |
| Islington | Included for every year |
| Kensington and Chelsea | Included for every year |
| Kingston upon Thames | Included for every year |
| Lambeth | Included for every year |
| Lewisham | Included for every year |
| Merton | Included for every year |
| Newham | Included for every year |
| Redbridge | Included for every year |
| Richmond upon Thames | Included for every year |
| Southwark | Included for every year |
| Sutton | Included for every year |
| Tower Hamlets | Included for every year |
| Waltham Forest | Included for every year |
| Wandsworth | Included for every year |
| Westminster | Included for every year |
| Bracknell Forest | Included for every year |
| Brighton and Hove | Included for every year |
| Buckinghamshire | Excluded: 2016: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2017: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2018: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2019: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2020: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2021: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2022: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2023: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2024: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2025: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible |
| East Sussex | Included for every year |
| Hampshire | Included for every year |
| Isle of Wight | Included for every year |
| Kent | Included for every year |
| Medway | Included for every year |
| Milton Keynes | Included for every year |
| Oxfordshire | Included for every year |
| Portsmouth | Included for every year |
| Reading | Included for every year |
| Slough | Included for every year |
| Southampton | Included for every year |
| Surrey | Included for every year |
| West Berkshire | Included for every year |
| West Sussex | Included for every year |
| Windsor and Maidenhead | Included for every year |
| Wokingham | Included for every year |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Bristol, City of | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Cornwall | Included for every year |
| Devon | Included for every year |
| Dorset | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Gloucestershire | Included for every year |
| Isles of Scilly | Excluded: 2016: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2017: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2019: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2022: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2023: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2025: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld |
| North Somerset | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Plymouth | Included for every year |
| Somerset | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| South Gloucestershire | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Swindon | Included for every year |
| Torbay | Included for every year |
| Wiltshire | Included for every year |
| Aberdeen City | Included for every year |
| Aberdeenshire | Included for every year |
| Angus | Included for every year |
| Argyll and Bute | Included for every year |
| City of Edinburgh | Included for every year |
| Clackmannanshire | Included for every year |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Included for every year |
| Dundee City | Included for every year |
| East Ayrshire | Included for every year |
| East Dunbartonshire | Included for every year |
| East Lothian | Included for every year |
| East Renfrewshire | Included for every year |
| Falkirk | Included for every year |
| Fife | Included for every year |
| Glasgow City | Included for every year |
| Highland | Included for every year |
| Inverclyde | Included for every year |
| Midlothian | Included for every year |
| Moray | Included for every year |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | Included for every year |
| North Ayrshire | Included for every year |
| North Lanarkshire | Included for every year |
| Orkney Islands | Included for every year |
| Perth and Kinross | Included for every year |
| Renfrewshire | Included for every year |
| Scottish Borders | Included for every year |
| Shetland Islands | Included for every year |
| South Ayrshire | Included for every year |
| South Lanarkshire | Included for every year |
| Stirling | Included for every year |
| West Dunbartonshire | Included for every year |
| West Lothian | Included for every year |
| Blaenau Gwent | Included for every year |
| Bridgend | Included for every year |
| Caerphilly | Included for every year |
| Cardiff | Included for every year |
| Carmarthenshire | Included for every year |
| Ceredigion | Included for every year |
| Conwy | Included for every year |
| Denbighshire | Included for every year |
| Flintshire | Included for every year |
| Gwynedd | Included for every year |
| Isle of Anglesey | Included for every year |
| Merthyr Tydfil | Included for every year |
| Monmouthshire | Included for every year |
| Neath Port Talbot | Included for every year |
| Newport | Included for every year |
| Pembrokeshire | Included for every year |
| Powys | Included for every year |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | Included for every year |
| Swansea | Included for every year |
| Torfaen | Included for every year |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Included for every year |
| Wrexham | Included for every year |
Sources and periods
RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
STATS19 annual releases · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23
Road safety table index · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23
Resident travel and rural/urban classification · Annual series; 2024 classification break · accessed 2026-09-23
Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.
Beyond Postcodes · Johan StrydomThrough The Actuary Lens
Authority-level patterns support investigation, but cannot establish within-postcode differences or pricing lift without geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.
Published measures & limits
Serious injury exposure
Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.
Unit: killed or seriously injured casualties / 100 million motor vehicle miles
Fatality exposure
People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.
Unit: fatalities / 100 million motor vehicle miles
Severity conditional on collision
DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.
Unit: % injury collisions fatal or serious
Traffic through the area
Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.
Unit: billion motor vehicle miles
About the five Postcode Risk Indices
These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.
Sources & release
Analysis period: 2016–2025 · Approved release: 25/09/2026 · Validation: 25/09/2026
The analysis above is from the approved release. Later checks cannot change published findings until reviewed and approved.
23 sources need attention. The source table is open below; each row explains whether a check failed or new evidence awaits review.
Inspect 24 relevant sources
| Source | Recorded source period | Checked in release | Validated in release | Current source check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Local authority motor vehicle mileage | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries | December 2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Rainfall — England | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Rainfall — Wales | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Rainfall — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Air frost — England | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Air frost — Wales | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Air frost — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — England | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Recorded vehicle offences by police force | Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries | December 2023 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Properties in river and sea flood hazard | June 2026 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Properties in surface-water flood hazard | September 2025 | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| STATS19 annual releases | Latest available release | 21/09/2026 | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Road safety table index | Latest available release | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Police street-level crime | Monthly releases | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| River and sea flood hazard | Current hazard model | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Surface-water flood hazard | Current hazard model | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Resident travel and rural/urban classification | Annual series; 2024 classification break | Not recorded | Not recorded | New evidence awaiting review — not yet in findings |
| Anonymised MOT data | Annual releases | 22/09/2026 | 25/09/2026 | No source issue recorded |
Technical release ID
lens-2026-09-25-a1fc94c9307e