The question
Do recorded road outcomes differ between areas, and do those differences repeat in later years?
THE ACTUARY LENSGEOGRAPHY · EVIDENCE · PERSISTENCE
Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk
Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.
Official sources · 2016–2025207 areas · 2,070 area-yearsPublic evidence, not a validated insurance tariff
Tracker publication · 23/09/2026
Overview · County Durham · Injury collision frequency · Map year 2025 · History 2016–2025 · Assessment 2022–2025
Release and terminology
lens-2026-09-23-30b51e970e3e
KSI = killed or seriously injured. FSC = fatal or serious collisions. GB = Great Britain. UK = United Kingdom. DfT = Department for Transport. ONS = Office for National Statistics. PFA = police force area. NRD = National Receptor Dataset. These public outcomes are not insurance claim costs.
Do geographic differences endure?
The evidence
Official area-level observations, fixed discovery groups and a separate later-year assessment. Explore exposure, frequency and injury severity separately.
The limit
Authority-level patterns support investigation. They cannot prove within-postcode differences or insurance pricing lift; that requires geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.
What the released evidence says
Injury collision frequency · formal assessment 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 · all 207 authorities.
- 71 — consistently above
- 111 — consistently below
- 9 — mixed across years
- 16 — incomplete evidence
These counts describe direction against the fixed-panel benchmark. Mixed and incomplete evidence remain visible. They are not probabilities or a significance test.
Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.
Beyond Postcodes · Johan Strydom